Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Odds of U.S. attack on Iran before election drop to 25 - 40%
Unless the Stennis, Reagan or Kitty Hawk gets new orders I don't see the third carrier I think the Navy would request. This lowers the chance of a pre-election attack from the well over 50% I had originally.
It was reported that the Kitty Hawk was off of South East Asia and could provide the third reserve fleet at the end of October. It has returned to Japan. The other two carriers are off of California. Some members of the Enterprise have said they expect to be home for Thanksgiving, which indicates only a one week dual carrier coverage. Reports of their tour being extended are now uncomfirmed.
Possibility of a US attack remains high because of the two carrier groups and two strike forces being available during a possible five-day air campaign. That number is enough for a defensive role to protect the oil straits.