Thursday, November 16, 2006

Zogby Online Polls - Highly Inaccurate but Right

Thats the interesting result from going through and grading the pollsters this election. Zogby Interactive Online predicted 18 of 19 Senate winners correctly but was on average off by 8.6 percentage points - over twice the phone polls studied. A disadvantage of the Zogby online polls was not polling closer to the election. Taking an average of the five most recent polls, a measure compiled by, yielded a higher accuracy rate than most individual pollsters. "Rasmussen (25 races) and Mason-Dixon (15) each were off by an average of fewer than four points on the margin. Zogby's phone polls (10) and SurveyUSA (18) each missed by slightly more than four points."

Survey USA also has a 2006 poll scorecard for all pollsters in races they covered.

More discussion on best pollers here.

Except in the Texas Governor's race Zogby Online had the closest poll.


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