Monday, March 12, 2007

Houston F-16's Joins Air Expeditionary Force for Iran Battle

You keep getting little slips in newspaper accounts of the forward deployment of forces for the coming Iranian War. In this case the reserve F-16 wing at Ellington is being deployed to "Southwest Asia" as part of Air Expeditionary Force 5/6 of approximately 8 squadrons. More on AEFs. F-22's and F-117's have also recently deployed to Japan and South Korea as part of the aggressive forward deployment continuing force posture adjustment that is happening now.

Those who disbelieve or aren't convinced of a likely April attack on Iran can just take comfort that this is all part of a fairly new plan to organize the reserve Air Force and deploy them outside of the country for three month shifts.

Israeli Member of Knesset predicts attack on Iran. Prominent Israeli neocon gives bleak prospects for peace for Israel from the "deteriorated" Arab culture.

Max Boot: Iran is at fault and not the U.S., and only if Iran fears Bush will this administration get its way.

George Bush's Samson Option - The CIA's assessment is blunt. If the US attacks Iran, Southern Shia Iraq will light up like a candle and explode uncontrollably throughout the country.

The NIE on the US. This is the last days of the American Republic as it drifts toward bankruptcy and more open Imperialism. Former CIA consultant on foreign NIEs Chalmers Johnson is not optimistic we will take the British model and save democracy by giving up Empire. Not optimistic at all.
A long-time Cold Warrior, Johnson experienced a political awakening after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, noting that instead of demobilizing its massive armed forces, the US accelerated its reliance on military solutions to problems both economic and political. The result of this militarism (as distinct from actual domestic defense) is more terrorism against the US and its allies, the loss of core democratic values at home, and an eventual disaster for the American economy.
A Predator Becomes More Dangerous When Wounded - Noam Chomsky.
Despite the sabre-rattling it is, I suspect, unlikely that the Bush administration will attack Iran. Public opinion in the US and around the world is overwhelmingly opposed. It appears that the US military and intelligence community is also opposed. Iran cannot defend itself against US attack, but it can respond in other ways, among them by inciting even more havoc in Iraq. Some issue warnings that are far more grave, among them the British military historian Corelli Barnett, who writes that "an attack on Iran would effectively launch world war three".

Then again, a predator becomes even more dangerous, and less predictable, when wounded. In desperation to salvage something, the administration might risk even greater disasters. The Bush administration has created an unimaginable catastrophe in Iraq. It has been unable to establish a reliable client state within, and cannot withdraw without facing the possible loss of control of the Middle East's energy resources.

In the west, any wild statement by President Ahmadinejad is circulated in headlines, dubiously translated. But Ahmadinejad has no control over foreign policy, which is in the hands of his superior, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The US media tend to ignore Khamenei's statements, especially if they are conciliatory. It's widely reported when Ahmadinejad says Israel shouldn't exist - but there is silence when Khamenei says that Iran supports the Arab League position on Israel-Palestine, calling for normalisation of relations with Israel if it accepts the international consensus of a two-state settlement.

The US invasion of Iraq virtually instructed Iran to develop a nuclear deterrent. The message was that the US attacks at will, as long as the target is defenceless.
Iran to take nuclear case directly to UN
· Ahmadinejad wants to 'defend country's rights'
· Think-tank warns against military action by Israel

The current view from this liberal is an attack on Iran is judged likely and the over/under date is April 15.

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