Thursday, November 09, 2006

Local candidate news - the past and future

My candidate lost but had a respectable showing. Many months ago I said she needed 12,000 votes to win. I was right and she could have done it with a bit less. The last two weeks I did another prediction that after the lack of campaigning and funds in the summer and fall she might get only 8,000 which was correct. It remains respectable because it is a GOP stronghold and at 41% she was less than 2% behind her fellow new Democratic candidate in Clear Lake who had much, much more funds and support and even the benefit of some minor scandals that came out in the last two weeks.

Update - I should add in that this year she gained a new full-time job that greatly slowed her campaign and she also suffered new major health issues that precluded block-walking. Don't campaign or expect to hold a state office if you have a regular job.

I am sure Talton's seat is winnable, just not this time. I asked her to respond to a teacher's union PAC that considered a several thousand piece mail out in her precinct in this way: There is such a low turnout in elections in this area those mailers that could persuade more than a thousand people could swing your race and not those races the PAC is supporting with their higher turnout.

Talton...11,112 ____56%
Sexton...8,003 ____41%

Davis.....19,597___ 58%
Matula...14,358 __ 42%

What is really needing rebuilding though is grass roots neighbor to neighbor contact, why we are Democrats and Liberals and Independents and Progressives and how we can help and support working and retired families. Working on her campaign did make me not do contact work in my precinct I need to work on. Her district did not include the areas where her biggest supporters like me live. Among other things to think about for the future - 20 votes, total, could win my city council seat. (I told you this was a low turnout area!) 600 could win hers. And the turnout for school and college board races are even more pitiful....

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1 comment:

Perry Dorrell, aka PDiddie said...

A very winnable district indeed and one that screams to be targeted next go-round.