I had given myself the nickname Cassandra for accurately predicting the future but being unable to do anything about it.
Iraq would be a terrible occupation after a short war - check.The only miss was that Bush-Cheney would attack Iran for an even bigger disaster than Iraq. Miss, thanks to repeated and persistent efforts by the professional military to deflect Cheney.
No WMDs - check.
Bush would be secretive, wrong, incompetent, unconstitutional, embarrassing and the worst ever president - check.
Kerry would likely lose a close election - America doesn't elect Massachusetts Democrats - check.
The winner in Iraq would be Iran - check.
The GOP is clueless and ineffective in the GWOT - check.
Housing prices in many areas of the country are in a bubble and still have a long way to fall - check.
The DOW will fall to 8000 - almost there - check.
The biggest problem with government and business is lies - check.
Gas prices skyrocket - check.
Global warming and more Houston hurricanes - check.
We are losing in Afghanistan - check.
Now people want to know what I see next.
And the unhappy answer is I have about reached the limit of my forecasting skills. There are some easy ones - we pull out of Iraq within two years leaving a government that somewhat leans toward Iran. Our standing in the world goes up with Bush-Cheney gone. Despite going down to massive defeat the conservatives will be as delusional as ever.
As to the economy, we will have a new President with big majorities in the House and Senate and I don't know yet the new policies. Since we have about reached my forecast low I don't know the next step for Wall Street. Maybe after a year of watching Obama and the Democrats I will see a pattern.
One prediction - for the median middle-income voter his income should finally start to go up. That always happens under Democratic control due to tax and fiscal policies that favor workers and not unearned income. For the rest you should listen to people who were right the past 8 years and ignore the great majority who have the loudest voices who were dead wrong. If you bet against them you have the odds heavily in your favor.
Tags: forecast Cassandra next President economy Iraq