Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Electoral Projections

FiveThirtyEight.com has the race a toss-up now for either Hillary or Obama but they are favored in different states.

I am back to thinking Hillary is the best VP candidate although I hate her judgement on military and foreign policy advisers. Her domestic and economic advisers are also not progressive.

Electoral-vote.com has a bit of a McCain lead right now over Barack Obama. The Midwest will be the key battleground this time. It is nice to see that Texas is not solid red but only pink. The main page compares Clinton and Obama in the swing states. Clinton would help Obama in Florida, Ohio, Arkansas, West Virginia and New Hampshire. She might help in Michigan and Missouri.

The national poll numbers have Obama beating McCain by about 4% but this is way too early. Here is the Pollster graph. The problem for McCain is that every negative indicator for the GOP is likely to get worse by November and Obama will greatly out raise campaign funds which will be poured into GOTV efforts. Sen. Barack Obama also responds immediately and effectively to smears which is something Kerry never learned.

On these polls I want to pass along the word that there is a slight bias against Obama in the way surveys are normally done. Cell phone only households which are becoming significant are 4% more likely to be Obama supporters.

The GOP counters to this trend and the enthusiasm of new voters for Obama are their efforts already underway to suppress the vote.

Added - The Karl Rove maps (pdf) which show the election a toss-up but Clinton doing better.

1 comment:

Gary said...

I forgot to include hominidviews.com. His projections are like 538's without the weighting of the polls and the demographics of each state.