Tuesday, February 26, 2008

What Republican Fundraisers Talk About

Right now, it is mostly about how McCain is hosed. Here in Texas, we aren't seeing the money advantage so much as the superb ground organization of the Obama team. But the money people are worried about the Obama cash advantage. This is why McCain is desperate to get Obama to agree to use public funding, even if McCain won't use it now. An interesting history from the other side - the side that used to have the political money-making machine.

Patrick Ruffini:
The situation right now is that Obama can raise $60 million a month through November, even with $10 million a month online, McCain could do $20-30 million. Think Kerry had a good pitch with Bush outraising him 2 to 1? McCain could be outraised 3 to 1.

....But I think a plausible scenario is that Obama uses a 2 or 3 to 1 cash advantage is to expand the map: to play in 25 states rather than McCain’s 15-20. The most effective TV ads are those that are uncontested. Could Obama run virtually uncontested advertising in Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Georgia to move the numbers starting in March? And organize the African American vote in the South? Or more likely, concentrate on building insurmountable leads in true swing states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota and force him to defend GOP-leaning Missouri and Florida?

All of this — the massive resource advantage Obama now enjoys — is the result of a decision to trust in a fundamentally more deeper and more resilient medium for building support for his campaign: a word of mouth network that can only be corralled online. Hillary Clinton trusted the establishment and is on the brink of losing. The GOP candidates who leaned on the party’s Wise Old Men lost.

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