Wednesday, March 05, 2008

With more 'victories' like Texas, Hillary is over

The Hillary campaign is sure better at spin.

Follow this -

Hillary Texas popular primary vote 51% - delegates 65, Obama 47% - delegates 61.

In the Texas convention caucus system it is estimated by the Wall Street Journal that Obama will get 37 delegates to Hillary's 30 delegates.

This gives total Texas pledged delegates to the national convention - Hillary 95 but Obama 98. (With an inside knowledge of how the system works I would estimate more for Obama - his delegates are more committed to going to the state convention.)

My precinct awarded 7 delegates to Hillary and 7 to Obama to the next convention. In this area, our primary vote in Southeast Harris County Senate District 11 awarded 2 Hillary and 2 Obama to the national convention.

Bottom Line - after Hillary Clinton's "victory" in Texas, it is Obama who gets more of the votes that count.

Hillary's overall gain for March 4, which had 370 total delegates up for grabs, will be about +8. Hillary remains after today more than 140 delegates behind.

There are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests. Unless Hillary wins about 75% of the remaining delegates she loses in the pledged votes. The convention will start with more delegates pledged to Obama and Obama will have won more states and more of the popular vote.

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