Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Establishment Comeback in New Hampshire - Update

Democratic polls were wrong and Hillary wins it. This win comes after three days of even her own camp believing she would lose.

On the Republican side, the establishment candidates of McCain and Romney are one and two. Rudy Giuliani still is waiting for Florida. Huckabee should be getting good news as the campaign heads south.

Both McCain and Hillary Clinton could claim "Comeback Kid" honors. The huge surprise was Hillary but a month ago everyone believed McCain, once the front runner, was all but dead. Can Thompson experience a similar resurrection? The establishment rallied after losing to progressives in Iowa.

McCain, Romney and Huckabee will battle for Michigan. On the Democratic side in Michigan it will be Clinton versus uncommitted for no delegates.

Ron Paul did not get the 12% I predicted, only 8%, beating Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter. His racist, sexist, anti-homosexual newsletters surfaced.

Expect to hear two things in post analysis of New Hampshire: the crying moment where Hillary reconnected with woman voters(?), and the Bradley effect where white voters say they will vote for a black man but in a secret ballot won't(?).

Obama will have a hard time in the South, along with Clinton. Just today I opened an email from my Dad and it was the false claim that "Obama is a radical Muslim who won't pledge allegiance."

This is false as I explained to my Dad and referred him to the debunking at SNOPES. Let me repeat for you other Southerners here.

Obama did not attend a radical Muslim school but a Catholic school when he was young and then a secular public school in Indonesia. They were both the best schools in his neighborhood.

He became a Christian before he entered politics. He says he has a personal relationship with Jesus Christ. He attends the Sunday 11 AM service at his church whenever he is in town.

You may get other emails saying this is a radical communist church. It is a large popular Church of Christ mainly black church with a history of helping people in the community. He met many members of the church while working as a $13,000 a year community organizer dealing with neighborhood poverty caused by closed steel plants.

He has recited the pledge of allegiance in public many times and normally places his hand over his heart. Many pictures are available of this.

Obama took the oath of office on a Bible, not the Koran.

This a false lie spread by ignorant people.

I keep an eye on the delegate count and the total votes for each primary.

With 96% reporting (Democrats Bold)

Hillary..... 110,172..... 21.8%..... 9
Obama....... 102,409..... 20.2%..... 9

McCain....... 86,551..... 17.1%..... 7
Romney....... 73,681..... 14.6%..... 4
Edwards...... 47,650...... 9.4%..... 7
Huckabee..... 25,958...... 5.1%..... 1
Guiliani..... 20,009...... 4.0%
Ron Paul..... 17,788...... 3.5%
Richardson... 12,936...... 2.6%
Kucinich...... 3,841...... 0.8%

Thompson...... 2,796...... 0.6%
Hunter........ 1,191...... 0.2%
Biden........... 615...... 0.1%
Gravel.......... 397...... 0.1%
Dodd............ 193...... 0.0%

NYT - From a Big Boost for Obama to a Sharp Blow
WP - Another Comeback Kid
WSJ - Clinton Defeats Obama in Primary; McCain Takes Republican Contest
Time - The Comeback Kids
UK Guardian - Hillary fights on with full heart

Look to what happened with the Democratic polls here - it looks like college-educated women went big for Clinton in the last two days.

There were three great speeches tonight. I'll try to post videos when they show up online.

Update: Concerns raised about LHS vote counting software hacking the vote for Clinton. A Ron Paul supporter already has a results by town that shows Obama won on the hand-counted results. A quick audit of a few townships recounting by hand comparing the totals from the LHS Associates vote totals would quickly resolve this.

TalkLeft - This is good for the Democratic Party and for Democratic values.

Amanda - I got angry at Edwards. I think maybe some other women did too. Edwards: I wasn't criticizing Hillary for emotional moment - video.

Dana Milbank - Clinton and reporters had prepared for wake, came back to Lazarus.

Videos of New Hampshire Obama, Edwards, and Hillary. Could have been great but then ended on Michigan and Democrat bashing - Romney.

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