Thursday, January 10, 2008

What happened to the polls in NH? Update

Pollster Mark Blumenthal lists 8 possible reasons they were off including Diebold vote-counting fraud, which he is dubious about.

A big problem is that exit polls are adjusted to reflect actual results. An unadjusted exit poll is needed.

Charles Franklin feels the polling industry needs to release more data and study it to determine what went wrong. It was a ten point undercount for Hillary only.

Most people are saying there was a late surge for Hillary Clinton. But the exit poll data shows those who made up their mind in the last three days went to Obama

Not discounting vote tabulation fraud - Bradblog. He follows it up with a post using Blackbox Voting's report on the criminal felony conviction of a LHS Associates executive programmer, some mainstream coverage, and Chris Matthews admitting the raw exit polls showed Obama winning.

Another look at the exit polls that Fox News had showed it was the most liberal portion of the state where the exit polls showed an Obama win but machine counted results showed Hillary Clinton winning. I don't know about you but I think Hillary is not racking up wins in the most liberal areas, contradicting secret exit polls.
The folks at Fox News headquarters in New York, my companions on election night, told me that they found discrepancies between the exit poll results and the actual tabulated vote in exit poll precincts in the Concord/West segment of the state, a liberal area that has been leaning Vermontward in its politics and was the strongest area for Howard Dean in 2004. This is a bit puzzling, since the exit poll, like the actual vote, is a secret ballot: The voter gets a ballot that he marks up and then deposits in a box....

The Manchester area was Hillary Clinton's strongest region in the state, and she carried next-door upscale Bedford (by just a few votes) and most of the other surrounding towns. The initial exit poll precincts showed Clinton carrying the region denoted "South" (these definitions were made back in the 1970s and reflect demographic conditions then, not now), about which I was skeptical. But as the votes came in, it became clear that she indeed was carrying most of the towns in these areas....

Clinton carried Manchester 45 to 31 percent and Nashua, seemingly less favorable ground, 45 to 33 percent. She racked up big margins in the former mill towns of Dover, Rochester, and Somersworth on the Maine border, where turnout was almost double that in 2000.
So was it organization turning out the votes in areas that I think should have gone for Obama or Edwards or the folks at LHS trying to throw a monkeywrench into the results?

Most of the other blog commentary on New Hampshire is on Hillary winning the women's votes for various reasons and taking it from Edwards.

WILL RON PAUL AUTHORIZE AN AUDIT OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY? It was his website that posted the first looks at vote results differences by hand count versus electronic count.

When all the candidates are acceptable you too can be Undecided, and changeable?

I am not accusing any campaign of anything but a recount of the Concord/West segment of the state and possibly the South should be undertaken now.

As an aside, New Hampshire's TV winner was Rachel Meadows.

Update - Let me make it clear I do not think that the Clinton campaign stole the election. I think that every time the Republican LHS Associates machines total the ballots some of their totals should be hand audited. I don't trust businesses that design their software to be easily hacked and employ felons.

UPDATE - Dallas Morning News: Bloggers form theory New Hampshire vote was rigged. Did machine errors remove votes from Ron Paul and Barrack Obama?

HBO: Hacking Democracy.

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