Wednesday, February 14, 2007

The US attack on Iran is on

If Bush was determined to attack Iran with overwhelming force what would our carriers and strategic air force be doing? - What they are doing now.

When will they attack? - Between March 15 and April 18 of this year. Bush and Cheney's preparations appear complete and the pieces are already moving into place.

See my previous reports here, here, here, and all of these here.

Besides myself, other like Paul Rogers, have noticed the USS Reagan moving to either the Western Pacific or the Arabian Sea. Both reports could be correct, the Reagan will visit Japan February 24 to 28 on its way further west.

Little noticed item one is that a nearby local paper reports a member of the USS Enterprise has just put out to sea. Searching I find that carrier has completely dropped off of the media.

The USS Nimitz and the USS Roosevelt are also at sea in recently started exercises and could be underway already toward the Iran area. The new USS Truman is also near the USS Roosevelt in the Atlantic having just been ammo resupplied after completing sea trials. Stratfor had suggested the Nimitz and the Roosevelt as carriers that could immediately deploy for an attack on Iran.

Even the USS Kitty Hawk, the US Navy's oldest ship stationed in Japan, while undergoing normal maintenance is doing it in such a way without contractors that it can be redeployed by early next month.

The News:
President Nixon, a very good poker player, once defined the art of brinkmanship as persuading your opponent that you are insane and, unless appeased by pledges of surrender, quite capable of blowing up the planet.

By these robust standards George Bush is doing a moderately competent job in suggesting that if balked by Iran on the matter of arming the Shias in Iraq or pursuing its nuclear programme he'll dump high explosive, maybe even a couple of nukes, on that country's relevant research sites, or tell Israel to do the job for him.

In Washington there are plenty of rational people in Congress, think-tanks and the Pentagon who think he's capable of ordering an attack,-- albeit not a nuclear one -- with bombers carrying conventional explosive and with missiles from US ships in the Persian Gulf.

Colonel Sam Gardner, who's taught at the National War College recently [outlined] the plan as it could unfold: already the second naval carrier group has been deployed to the Gulf area, joined by naval mine clearing ships. "As one of the last steps before a strike, we'll see USAF tankers moved to unusual places, like Bulgaria. These will be used to refuel the US-based B-2 bombers on their strike missions into Iran. When that happens, we'll only be days away from a strike."
There were reports from the Eastern European press last month that tankers have already been deployed. "The United States “could be using its two air force bases in Bulgaria and one at Romania's Black Sea coast to launch an attack on Iran in April," the Bulgarian news agency Novinite claimed." Direct connection is behind a subscription wall but a Cuban article is good. Recent reports from Bulgaria and Romania would be good to have.

Extensive debates from DC are appearing in the media - Four Ex-CIA officials see outbreak of conflict with Iran looming.

The strike is on - now it is a question of when. Modern US military practice is to wait for dark nights for our our stealth bombers. New moons in March and April are the times of risk. April 15-17 may be more likely but pieces are in place for a March 18 attack.

The terrorist group MEK and others are also beginning to be unleashed on Iran - 11 Iranian Republican Guards killed in unprecedented attack. Kurds are preparing for war:
Reports suggest that US Special Forces, helped by exiles, are already engaged in operations in Iran’s Khuzestan for data collection and liaison with internal opposition. US attack aircrafts have been sent to Turkey and other countries on Iran's borders. US troops, warships and Patriot anti-missile missile batteries are spread all over the Arab side of the Persian Gulf coast.
Only urging your congressman to pass a resolution forbidding an attack without approval of Congress has a chance of stopping this war now. With the Bush-Cheney-Nixon doctrine of unitary executive authority even that may not be enough. As of now, I would bet my entire checking account we have an attack before the end of April.

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1 comment:

Gary said...

Janette has pointed out to me that we did not attack Iraq during a new moon but nearer a full moon. I think that may be because that was not only an air attack. More light from the moon is good for night vision googles.

I may have to take back the most probable dates of the attack and just go back to declaring that mid/late-March to the end of April are the probable attack times.