Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Iowa Dems - too close to call - Update

Lots of survey's out today. The most respected has:
Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.
I am of the opinion that Edwards has a wider net capturing the rural precincts that will give him an advantage on caucus night compared to Obama where his support is more concentrated and urban, both disadvantages in getting delegates. Kucinich has instructed his caucus goers to choose Obama as a second choice but they have the same urban skew.

Another good poll has this:
Among 933 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs even with Sen. Barack Obama (both at 28%) while former Sen. John Edwards receives 26% in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 7%.

Among 882 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 28%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 26% in a statewide caucus; Sen. John McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson both trail at 12%, Rep. Ron Paul at 9%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 7%.

All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 3.3% for both subgroups.

Romney, after spending a few trillion dollars and sacrificing all of his large family's time, appears to be losing to the affable preacher and Arkansas native Huckabee.
In a battle of former governors from Arkansas and Massachusetts, Huckabee leads Romney, 32 percent to 26 percent.... a resurgent Arizona Sen. John McCain grabbing third place in the Republican race for the first-in-the-nation caucuses. McCain tallies support from 13 percent in the poll -- a 6-point improvement since late November.
The GOP doesn't caucus, the secret ballot winner in each precinct wins.

There has been some criticism of the poll with it showing a very large influx of Independents and first-timers to the caucus. The poll says that 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers. Usually, the number of first-time caucus goers is no more than 20%. The Edward's camp reaction.

My easy prediction: With the three-way tie developing among the Democrats several also-ran candidates will be dropping out this month.

The GOP has a long race ahead with Rudy predicting he will only start winning in Florida on January 29. Matt notices an Enthusiasm Gap in the parties.

Florida may be locked out of the Democratic Convention unless the winning candidate takes pity on Florida Democrats and suspends the rules. They were forbidden to chose delegates on Jan. 29 but decided to ignore the DNC rules. The RNC only penalized it half the delegates. Lawsuits are still pending, the one against the DNC has lost. Michigan also has this problem with its January 15 primary.

I will be at an Iowa Caucus night party to see how well I did on my predictions.

UPDATE - Populist thunder booming in Iowa. "The truth of the matter is you have to beat these people," he said. "If you don't, nothing will change."

Looking at the chart at the bottom of this page I am not that impressed how the Des Moines Register has done with its past polls.

Roger Simon asks - Should Hillary have skipped Iowa?

Did Obama slam Gore and Kerry in Iowa?

UPDATE 2 - NADER THROWS SUPPORT TO EDWARDS. But Nader doesn't have the appeal he once did.
Edwards' passionate populism, which has been dismissed in too many mainstream articles in the past weeks as "angry" or "over the top," is speaking to the reality of the concentration of power and wealth in a few hands--a concentration that is working against the vast majority of Americans. Why is what Edwards is saying "over the top" when 72% of the American people told "Business Week" in 2000--- that corporations have too much control over their lives and jobs.
kos undecided - Hillary for toughness, Edwards for message.

david mizner: The blogospheric rank-and-file has long been behind Edwards; now many of the influential bloggers are too.

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